Predicting NBA Free Agent Signings

I suspect plenty of dumb deals will be had. Oh how they never learn. 

Photo credit: Tom Szczerbowski-USA TODAY Sports

• Jamie Mah @grahammah

In 2016, the NBA saw a massive spike in its overall revenue. With the new ESPN/ABC TV deal, the league’s projected cap spiked north of 30 million. This enabled the Warriors, the biggest winners of this jump, to nab Kevin Durant. 

Three years removed from this summer of stupidity — the Lakers signed both Mozgov and Deng to these albatrosses — we are now less than 48hrs away from another season of upheaval. How teams spend their money could have ripple effects for the league and certain teams futures for years to come. I suspect a few crazy deals will be signed. Here’s what I’m predicting. 

The Ones That Matter

Kawhi Leonard Stays in Toronto: He’d be the first star player in league history to leave a team that just won the title. I expect him to entertain offers from both LA teams and the Knicks, but ultimately, a chance to repeat in Toronto will prove too much to pass up. He sings a 1 and 1 deal so as to fall in line with Lowry, Gasol and Ibaka’s deals. Smart move in my opinion. Plus this will give him access to the 10 year veteran super max in 2021. 

Kevin Durant Stays in Golden State: Like Kawhi, he’ll stay and do a 1 and 1 and test his real options once he’s healthy. The Knicks look enticing as do Brooklyn with Kyrie possibly, but ultimately staying put and rehabbing looks to be in his best interest. 

Klay Thompson Stays: I don’t think I should have to discuss this one. He’s staying. 

Kyrie Irving goes to Brooklyn: He’s a pain in the ass but he’s also a stud when he plays well. The best around the hoop finisher in the game and he’s only 26, bad knees and all, which do worry me. But overall he’s worth the risk. 

Kemba Walker goes to Boston: He’s a decent fit even though he needs the ball a lot to thrive. I’m not too big on this signing. I’d prefer if Boston stood pat and let Taytum, Brown and Gordon thrive a bit more. They need a point guard for sure, but at this price, for a guy who’s 29 and undersized. I don’t get it. But whatever. He’s a good player and he works hard. I guess we’ll see. 

D’Angelo Russell goes to the Knicks: They whiff on Durant and Kawhi so they decide to take a flyer on a 23 year old point guard with some upside. Not a bad idea since they need to start filling their roster with competent players if they ever want to lure a big fish someday. Russell had a breakout season last year but he’s still an iffy shooter and his defence needs improving. I’ll give him credit though, as he’s become better in the pick and roll and his shot selection has improved. Worth a gamble in my opinion. 

The Overpays

Jimmy Butler lands in LA with Lebron and Davis.They whiff on Kawhi and settle on Butler instead. Let’s get this straight, he’s not worth the max. He’ll get it but he’s definitely not worth it. I suspect he takes a bit less than the max to sign with LA. It’s not ideal but LA covets stars and he’s one. Plus they need another ball handler and Jimmy provides them with this. However, Jimmy, in my opinion, is vastly overrated. Playing next to Lebron and Davis puts him in his natural position, as a top flight 3rd option.

Al Horford goes to Dallas: They have 30 mill in cap space and Horford brings experience and size to a team that’s relying on Porzingis to stay healthy. I’m not a fan of that trade as the guy hasn’t played in over 20 months, but I guess we’ll see. I’d give Horford 3 years max. If he get the 4th, Dallas is dumb.

Tobias Harris: With Jimmy out, he resigns in Philly. They give him the max and immediately regret it six months from now when they realize he’s at best a 4th option.

Kris Middleton get the max in Milwaukee: So here’s the pickle. Milwaukee kind of has no choice here. Either keep your roster intact as much as possible or lose a few key players (Middleton, Brogdon, Lopez) whom you probably can’t replace and possibly piss off Giannis in the process. Middleton is good, but is he that good that he can be your second best player on a championship level team? I doubt it. At best he’s a 3rd option and even that sounds a bit like a reach. But what do they do? I’d only offer three years though, but that might piss his agent off. Honestly I’d rather have Brogdan but he’s prone to injury so there’s that. I’d say sign him, see how next season goes and if it ends badly or he doesn’t perform up to expectations, shop him and cut bait. 

Malcolm Brogdan get overpaid by someone, most likely New Orleans: He’s good, but not 20 million a season good. This one will sting for whoever signs him. If you’re the Knicks do you give him 5 years at 15 million a year? Might be worth that kind of risk for a team like them. 

Brook Lopez stays in Milwaukee: He’s definitely worth paying as you clearly could see in the Toronto series. He has plenty to offer still and he spreads the floor for Giannis which is vital to their whole offence. However, what’s he worth? 3 years 48? Higher than that I let him walk. But can you? I don’t envy Milwaukee here. Paying these guys locks you into this roster. I’d shop Bledsoe and see if I can keep Brogdan. He’s a better player and shooter. Lopez might be a big overpay but they might have no choice. 

Patryk Beverley: He either stays in LA or he goes somewhere weird and gets paid big, like Phoenix or New Orleans. He’s worth 8 million a year, but he’ll probably get 15, which is crazy. 

The Rest:

Seth Curry: He can shoot and he’s young. Worth a 4 year deal at 60 million. 

Enes Kanter: Scoring and rebounding off the bench. Hard to find. 

Demarcus Cousins: I’d offer him a two year contract at best. He needs to play well this year to warrant a bigger deal. 

Danny Green: Toronto should try to keep him. Experience, defence and shooting ability help fill their roster. Worth a two year contract. 

Marcus Morris: Worth paying 12 million too. Solid bench player. 

Julius Randle: Horrible defensive player. But for the right amount, 8 million at best, he’s a good fit for a second unit. Thinks he’s better than he really is. 

JJ. Reddick: Pay him. He’s very much in the mould of Danny Green. Veteran presense and a great shooter. Lakers should go after him if they swing and miss on a big fish. He’d be great next to Lebron and Davis. You can apply this to Seth Curry as well. 

Austin Rivers: Worth a small contract. He’s improved. Good off the bench. 

Terrence Ross: Worth looking at. Dallas should look to add him. 

Bojan Bogdanovic: Solid player. Still young. Worth paying 12 million a year too.  

The rest don’t matter. I’m predicting at least a few “holy shit contracts!”

I really hope Kawhi stays. However, if he doesn’t, going to my Lakers is nice. I have a feeling Oklahoma will get in here somehow. They need to do something. Same for the Spurs. 

I’ll guess we’ll see how this all plays out.